Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Based on multiple indicators, they suggest that the market has not yet peaked, and expect Bitcoin to reach its high point in the third to fourth quarter of next year, with price peaks potentially falling between $145,000 and $189,000.
In a report released on Monday, Bitfinex stated that the current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and spot accumulation. Historical data indicates that “we are in the mid-cycle,” and with the Bitcoin halving expected to occur in April 2024, the market may peak around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days post-halving.
The report also assesses the current market state and future direction based on various indicators. The analysts wrote:
Pi Cycle Top Indicator (Source: Bitfinex)
According to CoinGlass, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator can be used to indicate when the market is overheating. Historically, when the short-term moving average (the 111-day moving average shown in the figure above) moves upward and crosses the 350DMA x 2, Bitcoin’s price is typically in an overheating phase.
Bitfinex analysts believe that any price correction in 2025 will be relatively mild, thanks to the influx of institutional capital. Additionally, based on historical cycles, the year following a halving usually experiences the strongest gains. The analysts also estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cyclical target price of at least $145,000 by mid-2025, “potentially extending to $200,000 under favorable conditions.”
However, the report suggests that Bitcoin may experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025 and advises investors to be alert to signs of overbought conditions as Bitcoin approaches the cyclical peak.
