Market Analysis – Gradual Recovery after Market Crash, Avoid Leveraging Impatiently, Wait for Q1 Next Year
MicroStrategy Reduces Bitcoin Purchase
Will MicroStrategy’s Pre-Earnings “Quiet Period” Affect the Market?
Analysis of Binance Copy Trading
The past week can be said to have experienced the largest decline since this bull market started. Both the number of liquidations and the amount involved have reached recent highs. The decline of altcoins has also exceeded expectations, with many altcoin prices falling below their starting points, as if the bull market never existed. Graduation articles are everywhere on social media, which indeed confirms that making profits is the only way to truly earn money. Before exiting, everything is just on paper. The cryptocurrency market can change dramatically in just one day.
After a few days of heavy selling, the market experienced a significant rebound yesterday. BTC rebounded from its low of $92,500 to a high of $99,487, a rebound of about 6%. Altcoins also recovered at the same time, but the overall prices are still far from the high points of last week. AI Agent, desci, and platform tokens have been the focus of the market recently, with platform tokens showing particularly strong performance. BNB, BGB, and GT have all seen continuous increases, with the latter two even reaching new historical highs.
In terms of future operations, as mentioned in last week’s report, the period around Christmas may continue to be volatile. Considering that the current rebound is the first significant rebound after a major decline, and with the European and American funds resting, the opportunity to immediately return to the high point in the short term is not high. The recent significant gains in cryptocurrencies are mostly in the middle to later stage in terms of market capitalization. The overall direction has not changed much. Therefore, GT Radar reduced the leverage of each portfolio last week to avoid unnecessary volatility and erosion. The real opportunity for a significant increase will be in Q1 next year. The chart below also shows the increase in ETH in Q1 over the years, which indeed performs the best compared to other quarters. Therefore, it is recommended to use low leverage or a more conservative grid strategy in the near future.
MicroStrategy, a listed company, announced another purchase of $561 million worth of Bitcoin this week, with an average purchase price of $106,662. According to past records, this is the company’s seventh consecutive week of buying Bitcoin. However, this announcement actually caused Bitcoin to fall further because the amount of Bitcoin purchased by the company is much lower than in previous weeks (about one-third of the previous week), raising doubts about MicroStrategy’s willingness to buy at this price level.
On the other hand, MicroStrategy is about to enter the “quiet period” before the release of its earnings report. During this period (approximately 4 to 6 weeks), insiders are prohibited from trading the company’s stock or related securities, and funding activities such as convertible bonds and share issuances will also be restricted. Although there is no clear prohibition on “acquiring Bitcoin” and other major asset transactions, they may be included in the internal restrictions of the company. Therefore, it is widely believed that MicroStrategy may not be able to participate in the market for the next 4 to 6 weeks and continue to absorb market supply. Data shows that Bitcoin has shown a stable upward trend during the MicroStrategy buying period in the past 7 weeks, with last week being the only decline. In addition to the negative news from the Federal Reserve, the weakened buying power of MicroStrategy may also be a potential factor.
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“GTRadar – BULL”, “GTRadar – Balanced”, and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” have returns of +0.39%, -0.63%, and -1.63% in the past 7 days, and returns of -2.5%, +3%, and -0.57% in the past 30 days, respectively. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of 10%, mainly in BTC and ETH. “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a net long position of about 5%, mainly in BTC and BNB. “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain” holds a net long position of about 10%, mainly in ETH.
Followers who frequently change investment portfolios tend to have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow one portfolio. Do not easily end copy trading because of short-term retracements. From the perspective of the curve chart, retracements are actually good entry opportunities, and frequent entry and exit will significantly reduce the return rate.
The Federal Reserve hints at a slower pace of interest rate cuts, causing a heavy drop in US stocks and Bitcoin.
Although economists and analysts had anticipated that the pace of interest rate cuts next year might slow down, the Federal Reserve’s indication that it expects only two rate cuts in 2025 still exceeded market expectations. The Federal Reserve also predicted that inflation may not reach the 2% target until 2027, longer than the originally estimated 2026. These series of announcements have had a significant impact on the short-term trends of risk assets. In addition to the decline of the three major US stock indices, Bitcoin has also been falling from $106,000 for several consecutive days, once dropping below $93,000.
El Salvador reaches an agreement with the IMF, significantly restricting Bitcoin-related policies in exchange for a $1.4 billion loan.
El Salvador recently announced that as part of a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country will make significant adjustments to its Bitcoin policies. These adjustments include changing the acceptance of Bitcoin by merchants from mandatory to voluntary, gradually reducing the government’s involvement in the national cryptocurrency wallet Chivo, limiting tax payments to the use of USD, and restricting Bitcoin-related economic activities in the public sector within a certain range.
Binance 2024 Cryptocurrency Market Survey: Meme Coin Holders Surpass Bitcoin, AI Concept Coins Show the Most Potential
Binance conducted a survey among its 27,000 users from six continents to explore the future development trends of the cryptocurrency market. Among the respondents, 23.89% believed that the AI concept sector would emerge as the leader in the cryptocurrency market by 2025. In addition, meme coins ranked first in the favorite holdings assets among users, accounting for 16.1%, demonstrating their popularity and market influence.
Mo Shaikh, Co-founder and CEO of Aptos Labs, Resigns
Mo Shaikh, co-founder and CEO of Layer 1 blockchain company Aptos Labs, announced on Thursday that he will step down as CEO to “start a new chapter”. However, he will continue to serve as a strategic advisor to the company to assist in its development.
US SEC Approves First Cryptocurrency Index ETF Combining Bitcoin and Ethereum
According to documents released on Thursday, the SEC has authorized Nasdaq to list Hashdex’s “Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF” and authorized Cboe BZX to list Franklin Templeton’s “Franklin Crypto Index ETF”. The documents show that the proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum held by these two cryptocurrency index funds will be calculated based on the free float market value.
US Bitcoin ETF Sees Record $680 Million Net Outflow
According to data compiled by SoSoValue, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $680 million last Thursday, setting a new record for a single-day net outflow and ending the trend of net inflows for 15 consecutive trading days. Moreover, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $60.47 million, ending the trend of net inflows for 18 consecutive trading days.
Justin Sun Continues to Sell Ethereum, Selling Nearly 180,000 ETH in the Past Month
Since November 10, Justin Sun has deposited a total of 179,101 ETH (approximately $645 million) to HTX, with an average price of $3,601. As of the 25th, Justin Sun still holds 106,905 stETH (worth about $372.4 million) and 56,277 eETH (worth about $195.8 million), with 25,000 ETH ($87 million) being unlocked from Etherfi, which may continue to be transferred to HTX in the future.
Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet Increases Holdings by 619.7 BTC
Japanese company Metaplanet, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, announced on Monday that it will once again increase its holdings by 619.7 BTC, with a total cost of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million) and an average purchase price of 15,330,073 yen.
Security Experts Warn that Hyperliquid Has Been Targeted by North Korean Hackers
According to information shared by cybersecurity researcher Tayvano on X, multiple addresses associated with North Korean hackers are conducting transactions on the decentralized exchange platform Hyperliquid, claiming that the North Korean hackers are not trading, but testing. At the same time, Tayvano has continuously called on Hyperliquid to take this issue seriously.
Trump Nominates Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee, Appoints Bo Hines to Lead the “Cryptocurrency Committee”
US President-elect Donald Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, on Sunday that he has nominated economist and former advisor Stephen Miran as Chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee. The committee will provide economic policy and strategy recommendations to the executive branch.
Unichain, the Layer 2 Network of Uniswap, Plans to Launch Public Mainnet in Early 2025
Uniswap’s development company, Uniswap Labs, announced over the weekend that its Ethereum Layer 2 network, Unichain, is expected to launch its public mainnet in early 2025, and plans to integrate permissionless proof-of-stake on the first day of the mainnet launch.
MicroStrategy Announces Purchase of Approximately 526.2 BTC for about $561 Million
According to SEC filings disclosed by MicroStrategy on Monday, the company acquired approximately 5,262 BTC for about $561 million between December 16 and December 22, with an average purchase price of around $106,662. As of December 22, 2024, MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries hold approximately 444,262 BTC, with a total cost of about $27.7 billion and an average purchase price of around $62,257. Will purchasing Bitcoin as a company reserve asset? Robinhood CEO: Discussed, but no plans yet
Robinhood CEO Vladimir Tenev recently stated in an interview on Anthony Pompliano’s show that as Robinhood’s interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow, the idea of a “Bitcoin reserve” is occasionally mentioned. However, apart from holding some Bitcoin to meet customers’ trading needs, the company currently has no plans to hold Bitcoin as an investment asset. MicroStrategy plans to issue billions of shares to purchase more Bitcoin
According to a 14A proxy statement submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the proposed plan aims to increase Class A common stock from 330 million shares to 10.33 billion shares and preferred stock from 5 million shares to 1.005 billion shares. The proposed share issuance will support the company’s “21/21 Plan” (a $42 billion Bitcoin purchase plan).
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is from GT Radar’s official announcement. Each user may have slight differences in performance due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!
