Market Analysis – BTC rebounds strongly after breaking key support at $92,000, contracts see both long and short positions explode again
Strong US economic data
PPI data lower than expected
CPI to be announced tonight
Analysis of Binance follow orders
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX
Focus News
This week, BTC initially fell below the key support level of $92,000, causing panic in the market. There were also reports of many Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) liquidating their positions. However, the market quickly rebounded, and BTC rose by nearly 10% within two days, triggering both long and short positions with a total of approximately $800 million in liquidations.
With the rebound of BTC, the overall market saw a wave of gains yesterday. The AI Agent sector performed the best, with gains of 10% – 20% or more, dispelling the gloom from the previous day’s decline. The continuous listing of AI-related coins on Binance reflects the market’s focus on this sector. The current AI trend is reminiscent of the DEFI Summer a few years ago. The previous weekly report dedicated a considerable section to introducing AI Agents. Two coins worth paying attention to that have recently been listed on Binance are COOKIE and AIXBT.
According to The Washington Post, Trump is preparing to issue executive orders related to cryptocurrency and inviting industry leaders to develop legislative strategies. His new appointments demonstrate his focus on the AI and crypto industry. With Trump about to take office, Trump-related or political concept coins may be hyped again, such as BTC, AAVE, XRP, ADA, SOL, and DOGE.
Regarding the price trend of BTC, the current price has returned to the consolidation range above $92,000. In the short term, there is no clear direction, but two key points need special attention in the coming week. First, whether the uptrend can effectively break through the yellow downward trend line, especially with a noticeable breakout accompanied by trading volume. Second, whether the support at $92,000 remains valid. If it breaks, reducing positions should be the main strategy.
The US ISM Services and Employment data on January 8 and Non-Farm Payrolls data on January 10 both indicate a stronger-than-expected labor market in the US, showing steady expansion. Although this is good news for the economy and suggests that the risk of a hard landing caused by the Federal Reserve’s previous interest rate cuts has been significantly reduced, it also implies that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates to cope with economic growth and inflationary pressures.
On the other hand, Trump’s inauguration on January 20 is expected to bring expansionary fiscal policies such as tax cuts and infrastructure investments, which may increase the fiscal deficit and supply of government bonds. Combined with increased uncertainty about the future economy and policy direction, concerns about sustained inflationary pressures have deepened. As a result, US Treasury yields have risen significantly, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin and US stocks.
Fortunately, the recently released US Producer Price Index (PPI) data was lower than expected, indicating a easing of inflationary pressures at the producer level. This has led investors to expect that the Federal Reserve may maintain the current interest rate policy, thereby reducing corporate financing costs. As a result, US stocks and cryptocurrencies have been boosted since yesterday, especially technology and growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.
From the impact of the data released above, it is evident that the current macroeconomic direction has become the biggest influencing factor for the stock and cryptocurrency markets. The upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is even more important.
As the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation indicator, the performance of the upcoming CPI data may likely affect the Fed’s interest rate decision. However, the market currently tends to believe that the Fed will hold rates steady in January, regardless of whether the CPI data is slightly lower or higher than expected.
Overall, if tonight’s CPI data is lower than expected, it may further drive the rebound of risk assets. However, if the CPI data is higher than expected, it may cause a pullback in risk assets. In addition, the banking industry will release its financial reports this week, including major financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America. The performance of these institutions’ financial reports will also be the focus of investors’ attention.
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The returns of “GTRadar – BULL,” “GTRadar – Balanced,” and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” in the past 7 days were +1.89%, -1.08%, and -12.21% respectively. The returns in the past 30 days were -19.10%, -10.68%, and -12.42% respectively.
Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of 20%, mainly in BTC and DOGE.
Currently, “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a net short position of about 10%, mainly in SAND and SOL.
Currently, “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain” holds a net short position of about 10%, mainly in AVAX.
Followers who frequently change their investment portfolios may not perform as well as those who consistently follow a single portfolio. Do not end your follow order easily due to short-term retracements. From the curve chart, retracements are actually good opportunities to start following. In and out trading will significantly reduce returns.
The US Department of Justice approves the sale of $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized in the Silk Road case
Despite US President-elect Trump’s promise during his campaign not to sell the Bitcoin confiscated by the US government and to use it as a strategic reserve, the US Department of Justice has approved the sale of $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized in the Silk Road case on December 30. Bitwise Survey: 56% of US financial advisors more inclined to invest in cryptocurrencies after Trump’s victory
Bitwise conducted a recent survey from November 14 to December 20, interviewing 430 financial advisors about their attitudes towards cryptocurrencies. Among the respondents, 56% stated that they are more likely to invest in cryptocurrencies this year due to the election results on November 5. UK legislation recognizes “staking” as a blockchain validation mechanism, not within the scope of collective investment schemes
The UK Treasury has revised the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA) to exclude cryptocurrency staking from the scope of collective investment schemes. According to the revision, staking of Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will only be recognized as a blockchain validation process and will no longer be subject to regulatory requirements for collective investment schemes. This revision will take effect from January 31. RWA project Usual’s new exit mechanism leads to USD0++ disconnect
Recently, there has been turmoil in the decentralized finance (DeFi) market, with the price of the stablecoin USD0++ on decentralized exchanges (DEX) dropping to $0.94, a 6% deviation from its expected $1 price. The reasons behind this not only involve the protocol’s newly introduced “dual exit mechanism” but also reflect the complex token economic models and behavioral games of its users. US December labor data stronger than expected
According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 256,000 in December, higher than the market’s expectation of 160,000. The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, lower than the market’s expectation of 4.2%. US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau proposes expanding the Electronic Fund Transfer Act to include cryptocurrencies
According to the Financial Times, the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has proposed expanding the definition of the Electronic Fund Transfer Act to include any “asset that is used as a medium of exchange,” including stablecoins and other similar alternative assets. This measure would require cryptocurrency service providers to be responsible for compensating customers’ account losses in the event of hacker attacks or unauthorized transactions, aligning the standards for digital wallets with bank accounts. TX debt representative Sunil reveals repayment plan schedule
According to his tweet, the first-round repayment plan will target “claims below $50,000” for “convenience classes” of debt holders. This round of repayments is expected to total approximately $1.2 billion and is expected to begin as early as February 25, with the allocation period possibly lasting until March 4. Renowned trader Ansem implies entry for bargain hunting
Regarding the recent trend of Bitcoin, renowned trader and KOL Ansem recently posted on X, implying bargain hunting. He stated, “I feel that Bitcoin at this price range (around $91-92K) may see a very annoying low point that looks like it’s going to collapse but actually won’t. I plan to go long before the inauguration ceremony to see if the market overreacts to the hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and the panic about the Department of Justice’s potential sell-off.” BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes liquidates ENA tokens
According to on-chain data, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes’ wallet address transferred 7.97 million ENA tokens on January 13, with a total value of approximately $6.536 million. It is worth noting that just three weeks ago, Arthur Hayes transferred 9 million ENA tokens worth approximately $10.9 million, and all of these ENA tokens ended up flowing into exchanges. USDT stablecoin issuer Tether to relocate headquarters to El Salvador
According to an official announcement, Tether has obtained permission to relocate its headquarters to El Salvador. Additionally, there have been reports that senior Tether executives have recently purchased millions of dollars worth of real estate in El Salvador. Trump rumored to issue executive order on his first day in office, possibly involving the abolition of SEC’s controversial regulation SAB 121
According to The Washington Post, President-elect Trump plans to issue an executive order on his first day in office, which may revoke the controversial cryptocurrency accounting guidance of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is from the GT Radar official website announcement. Each user may have slight differences in performance due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!
