The latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the US services sector index has surged to 54.1, hitting a nearly two-year high, surpassing the market’s expected 53.5. At the same time, the price index has significantly increased from 58.2 to 64.4, indicating further cost pressures. However, the employment index has dropped to 51.4, lower than the previous value, reflecting challenges in the service industry despite steady growth, particularly in employment and cost aspects.
These data suggest that inflationary pressures may rise again, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a higher level of vigilance in monetary policy. With the market pushing back expectations for the first interest rate cut to June or July 2025, the possibility of a rate cut in January has been ruled out, and even the March meeting is not favored. This shift has dampened market sentiment, leading to declines in all major indices. As of now, both BTC and altcoins have faced significant declines, with BTC dropping back to $96,000 and ETH dropping back to $3,300. Memecoins have been particularly hard hit, with meme coins like PNUT, WIF, and NEIRO, previously highly sought after, now testing lows from the significant drop in December.
With approximately two weeks until Trump’s inauguration, discussions on related cryptocurrency legislation continue. It is anticipated that there will not be significant changes in the overall trend before then. The recent medium-term upward trend has been disrupted by the sharp decline following the data release yesterday, shifting to a period of volatility. Currently, the support level for Bitcoin is around $92,000, with pressure at $102,000. During this period, the GT Radar portfolio will reduce leverage and refocus on some coins listed on Coinbase 50 or those related to US politics. The AI Agent track, which has been very popular recently, cannot be included in the coin selection for following due to its novelty and most coins being traded on-chain. However, some AI-related coins will still be added to the portfolio.
The performance of altcoins has been lackluster, with funds on-chain shifting towards the AI Agent track. Over the past two weeks, while Bitcoin briefly reached $100,000, most altcoins did not follow suit, showing minimal upward momentum and significantly reduced trading activity. In contrast, AI Agents focused on-chain have attracted significant capital inflows due to their technological innovation, application potential, and most importantly, the “buzz” surrounding them. According to Coingecko data, in the past 7 days, the price increase of AI Agents and AI-related concepts far exceeded most other conceptual areas, indicating the strong position of AI Agents in the current market.
Additionally, with the upcoming inauguration of Trump as the US President on January 20, which is currently a globally prominent issue, some politically-themed meme coins (such as $trump, $maga) have seen short-term increases due to the return of attention. However, since the rise of the AI Agent concept, market enthusiasm for such pure meme coins has noticeably decreased. Especially for coins that have not landed on major exchanges like Binance, once the hype cools off, prices tend to lack support and experience significant declines. The risk is particularly high for these coins, and it is recommended for participants to exit promptly after making profits.
The investment theme for 2025 will focus on the AI Agent track. Recent reports from Microsoft on AI development and speeches from Nvidia founder Huang Renxun have emphasized that the future market size of the AI Agent market could reach trillions of dollars, far surpassing the current market valuation of $17 billion. While AI Agents in the cryptocurrency field cannot be compared to those of large tech companies in terms of resources, technology, and talent, the cryptocurrency market has always been driven by “attention economics.” Similar to the metaverse trend in 2022, assets related to the right narrative and track have the potential for upward movement.
Numerous AI and AI Agent-related projects have emerged, such as Virtual, Ai16z, Swarms, Act, and Clanker as AI Agent deployment platforms; zerebro, aixbt, and others as AI Agents; and meme coins like fartcoin related to AI. However, most of these assets can only be purchased on-chain, with relatively poor liquidity and higher risks compared to other coins, making them more challenging for general investors. Hence, careful consideration is necessary before investing. Besides the AI Agent concept, diversifying into the following tracks and assets is recommended:
RWA (Real World Assets Tokenization): With clearer regulatory expectations under the upcoming Trump administration, this would be favorable for RWA tracks that are highly sensitive to regulations.
DeFi (Decentralized Finance): As long as the bull market continues, some advanced DeFi protocols functioning as infrastructure will continue to prosper.
DeSci (Decentralized Science) and Depin: Exploring innovative scenarios driven by future technology.
Coinbase 50 and projects selected by other reputable institutions like the SEC and BlackRock for critical support.
The return rates for “GTRadar – BULL,” “GTRadar – Balanced,” and “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX” in the past 7 days were -5.48%, -4.55%, and -6.28%, respectively. Over the past 30 days, the return rates were -16.21%, -6.32%, and -6.62%, respectively. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of 30%, primarily in BTC and ETH. “GTRadar – Balanced” currently holds a net long position of around 10%, primarily in BTC and BNB. “GTRadar – Potential Public Chain” holds a net long position of approximately 30%, primarily in ETH.
It is noted that consistently changing investment portfolios may not yield as profitable results as continuously following a single portfolio. It is advised not to end a following easily due to short-term pullbacks. Looking at the trend on the curve, pullbacks may actually present good entry points for following, whereas frequent entries and exits may significantly reduce return rates.
In a recent analysis, MicroStrategy’s stock price plummeted over 45% from its peak, indicating a changing investor attitude towards its leveraged Bitcoin investment strategy. The narrative of their “leveraged Bitcoin investment tool” is gradually losing attractiveness as the market participants realize that the cost of indirectly holding Bitcoin through MicroStrategy is significantly higher than direct purchase. Moreover, Coinbase’s premium index has dropped to the lowest level in the past 12 months, indicating potential challenges for short-term price rebounds in Bitcoin. Ethena has released its 2025 roadmap, planning to introduce several products like iUSDe to venture into traditional financial sectors. The flow of Bitcoin into exchanges and outflows from miners has significantly decreased since November 2024, possibly indicating a lightening of selling pressure. Conversely, the amount of staked Ethereum continues to decline, challenging Lido’s dominant position. Additionally, the Japanese investment company Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin reserves to 10,000 BTC. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes warns of potential peak Bitcoin prices due to challenges in implementing Trump’s policies, while Bitfinex reports that Bitcoin’s seller liquidity is drying up, suggesting further upside potential in the midterm. The Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam, will step down on January 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration. JOLTS job vacancy data and ISM service index have dampened expectations of rate cuts, leading to declines in both stocks and cryptocurrency assets.
Please note that the above information does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is sourced from official announcements from GT Radar, and slight discrepancies may exist due to differing entry and exit prices for each user. Past performance does not guarantee future results!
