Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has shown a weak trend, with increased volatility. On one hand, the regulatory environment has released positive signals; the U.S. SEC has withdrawn its lawsuit against Ripple, and Trump has reiterated his determination to create a “crypto capital,” boosting short-term market sentiment. At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainty continues to overshadow the overall trend, with U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy becoming the market focus. The price of Bitcoin rebounded to $86,000 under the influence of positive news but subsequently fell back to around $84,000, a decline of over 20% compared to the year’s early peak. From the SEC’s withdrawal of the lawsuit, Trump’s supportive remarks, to ETF fund outflows and emerging technical pressures, the overall market has entered a phase of uncertainty regarding policy and capital direction. Investors are simultaneously faced with dual signals of “relaxed regulation” and “capital withdrawal and observation,” resulting in a lack of clear direction in the short term.
Table of Contents
- U.S. Regulatory Trends: SEC and Trump’s Policy Signals
- Fed’s Upcoming Shift and Conservative Capital Response: Market Remains Cautious
- Market Structure and Sentiment Observations: Capital Flows, Technical Trends, and On-Chain Changes
- About BingX
U.S. Regulatory Trends: SEC and Trump’s Policy Signals
In terms of regulatory policy, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently announced the formal withdrawal of its lawsuit against Ripple, which initially accused the company of conducting unregistered securities offerings through its XRP tokens. Following this announcement, the price of Ripple surged by 13.73%. The market generally interprets this move as a significant shift in regulatory stance, positively impacting the overall cryptocurrency market. The SEC also held its first public roundtable discussion on cryptocurrencies, discussing the applicability of securities law to digital assets, signaling potential reform of the regulatory framework that balances protection and innovation. The market views this as a potential long-term positive.
At the same time, during the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, former U.S. President Trump, through a pre-recorded speech, stated his commitment to making America the “global crypto capital” and plans to promote stablecoin legislation and market structure reform. He criticized the current administration for stifling innovation and promised to provide a clear regulatory path. This statement temporarily boosted Bitcoin’s price by more than 3% on that day; however, due to the lack of specific details, the market subsequently returned to observing fundamentals and macro policies. Additionally, Canary Capital announced the submission of a Sui spot ETF application, seen as a continuation of the regulatory positive trend.
Fed’s Upcoming Shift and Conservative Capital Response: Market Remains Cautious
On the macroeconomic data front, the upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI) and the Fed’s decisions during the March policy meeting are critical factors affecting the market. If inflation data shows a slowdown, it could strengthen market expectations for Fed rate cuts, thereby boosting the performance of crypto assets; conversely, if the data continues to show inflationary pressure, the market may face renewed selling pressure.
On the other hand, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes pointed out that Fed Chair Powell hinted that quantitative tightening (QT) may end on April 1. If quantitative easing (QE) is resumed and the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) regulations are relaxed afterwards, this would help create a looser capital environment. He believes that Bitcoin’s previous peak of $77,000 could form a short-term bottom; while the market has not fully completed its sell-off, Hayes observes that the “U.S. Bank Credit Supply Index” has started to rise, potentially providing support for a subsequent rebound.
Moreover, Trump recently hinted at possibly reinstating tariffs on China, raising market concerns about potential trade conflicts. Historical experiences show that during periods of rising geopolitical risks, cryptocurrencies, while occasionally seen as “safe-haven assets,” are more often regarded as risk assets due to their volatility and capital flow characteristics, making them vulnerable to the first impacts.
Market Structure and Sentiment Observations: Capital Flows, Technical Trends, and On-Chain Changes
Despite the apparent warming of regulatory policies and macroeconomic data, recent on-chain data indicates a divergence in market sentiment. On one hand, according to predictive markets like Polymarket, many investors remain optimistic that Bitcoin could break through $100,000 in the future; on the other hand, ETF funds have recently shown net outflows, indicating a more conservative attitude among institutional investors.
According to SoSoValue data, as of the week ending March 21, net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $798 million, the largest single-week outflow since the beginning of the year. Among these, Fidelity (FBTC) saw an outflow of $201 million, while Ark (ARKB) experienced a $164 million outflow, primarily due to some hedge funds ending their arbitrage operations and becoming more cautious.
From a technical analysis perspective, the technical indicators are showing a range consolidation pattern. If the price cannot effectively break through the $86,000 resistance level, short-term momentum remains insufficient. On-chain data shows that as of the third week of March, long-term holders (LTH) still maintain a holding ratio of 70% at a high level, indicating confidence in the mid to long-term trend. Meanwhile, increased activity among short-term holders and capital moving out of exchanges also reflects that some funds are choosing to exit and observe or shift to cold wallet allocations. The price of Ethereum remains relatively stable, currently holding above the $1,900 mark, with on-chain applications still active, making it one of the more favored assets amid market fluctuations.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is still in a transitional phase characterized by regulatory positives and macroeconomic uncertainties. In the short term, the market remains highly sensitive to inflation and Fed policies, with capital flows and technical indicators showing that most investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. If there is a clear shift in policy and capital, it could serve as a catalyst for the next phase of market movement. Given the increased price volatility, investors are advised to respond conservatively and choose appropriate entry points.
About BingX
BingX, founded in 2018, is a leading global cryptocurrency exchange that offers a diverse range of products and services, including spot trading, derivatives, copy trading, and asset management, to over 10 million users worldwide. In response to market demands, it regularly provides historical price trends of major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, catering to the varying needs of beginners and professionals alike. BingX is committed to providing a reliable platform, empowering users with innovative tools and features to enhance their trading capabilities. In 2024, BingX proudly became the main partner of Chelsea Football Club, marking its first exciting foray into the sports world.
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