Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Evaluates Approval Probability for Cryptocurrency ETP Applications
On Wednesday, Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, shared on social media the company’s assessment of the approval probabilities for various cryptocurrency spot ETP applications. According to the chart, they believe that cryptocurrency index funds focused on multi-coin allocations, Litecoin (LTC) ETFs, and Solana (SOL) ETFs have the highest likelihood of receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this year, with a probability of 90%.
Bloomberg analysts also estimate that the probability of a spot ETF tracking the price performance of Ripple (XRP) being approved this year exceeds 85%, while those for Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) spot ETFs stand at 80%. The probabilities for Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Avalanche (AVAX) spot ETFs are at 75%.
Source: Eric Balchunas
According to the chart, Bloomberg analysts believe that eight cryptocurrencies, including LTC, may be considered commodities by the SEC. In terms of the SEC’s review timeline, the decision deadlines for the spot ETF applications for LTC, SOL, XRP, DOGE, and ADA are in October, while those for DOT, HBAR, AVA, and others are scheduled for after November.
According to a previous report by Zombit, following the official appointment of the new SEC ### Paul Atkins last week, Balchunas stated that there are over 70 cryptocurrency fund applications pending review by the regulatory agency. In addition to the aforementioned nine products, this includes ETFs involving tokens such as AXL, APT, SUI, PENGU, TRUMP, MELANIA, BONK, BNB, and LINK.
