Table of Contents
- Market Dynamics
- Bitcoin Consolidation at High Levels, Awaiting Breakthrough Opportunities
- Economic Data: Policy Expectations Under the Shadow of Recession
- Federal Reserve Strategy: Prioritizing Inflation Control
- Tariffs and Labor Market: Delayed Impact
- China-U.S. Trade Negotiations: Focus Shifts to Switzerland Talks
- ETH/BTC in a Critical Consolidation Phase, Ethereum Pectra Upgrade May Become Price Driver
- Binance Follow-Up Analysis
Focus News
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has repeatedly tested the resistance zone of $97,000–$98,000 without successfully breaking through. This area has become a critical battleground for bulls and bears in the short term. If a substantial breakout occurs, it could challenge the $98,000 and even the $100,000 psychological levels. Conversely, if multiple tests fail, the possibility of a subsequent decline will increase.
Support is primarily concentrated in the $92,000–$93,000 range, where it not only marks the beginning of a prior upward move but will also soon overlap with the 200-day moving average, forming a strong medium-term support. If this level is breached, it would further open the door for a retracement towards the $90,000 mark. However, considering the medium-term upward trend of the 200-day moving average, the market is still expected to consolidate upwards, waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions.
On April 30, the United States reported a quarterly GDP growth rate of -0.3% for the first quarter, which not only fell short of market expectations of -0.2% but also deepened concerns regarding an economic recession. This result prompted the market to adjust its expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Based on market data at the time, traders predicted that the number of rate cuts this year would rise to four, with the first cut potentially occurring in June.
However, last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released April Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data showing an increase of 177,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. Following this data release, the market significantly adjusted its bets on rate cuts. According to FedWatch data, the anticipated timing for the first rate cut in 2025 has been pushed back from June to July, with the total expected cuts for the year reduced from four to three. The Fed is expected to maintain the current interest rates in tomorrow’s rate decision meeting, and the cryptocurrency market began to reverse downward following last week’s announcement, only to rebound briefly this morning as signs of progress emerged in the China-U.S. trade negotiations.
Nick Timiraos, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, often referred to as the “Fed’s megaphone,” pointed out that in the context of simultaneous risks of economic recession and inflationary pressures, the Fed currently leans towards “controlling inflation.” Unless there are clear signs of significant slowdown in consumer spending or rising unemployment, it is unlikely that rate cuts will be initiated.
It is noteworthy that economists generally believe that recent economic and employment reports have not fully reflected the impact of tariff policies. It is anticipated that the effects of high tariffs will gradually manifest in the coming months, potentially exerting pressure on the labor market. Should subsequent reports indicate a significant slowdown in the job market, the market’s expectations for interest rate direction may undergo substantial changes once again.
In the intertwined backdrop of monetary policy and tariff risks, the Fed is also closely monitoring the progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations. Despite recent reports suggesting that the negotiations have reached an impasse, China unexpectedly announced this morning that from May 9 to May 12, during Vice Premier He Lifeng’s visit to Switzerland, meetings will be held with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding tariff issues.
It is worth mentioning that the Chinese side stated that this meeting is in response to “the repeated expressions from senior U.S. officials through various channels wishing to adjust tariff policies and discuss related topics.” However, former President Trump claimed to the media that “it was China that wanted to hold negotiations and meetings,” with both sides unwilling to show weakness in public opinion. The choice of Switzerland as the meeting location also reflects both parties’ desire to avoid the politically sensitive implications of “who visits whom.”
Regardless, as the China-U.S. talks approach, market investors should closely monitor news and potential volatility from May 9 to May 12. The outcomes of the trade negotiations will directly influence economic performance and interest rate expectations in the coming months, and will also serve as an important basis for observing a shift in Fed policy.
Ethereum is set to undergo the Pectra upgrade on May 7, 2025, marking the most significant technical update since the “Merge” in 2022. This upgrade will introduce 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) aimed at enhancing user experience, scalability, and staking efficiency, thereby laying a solid foundation for Ethereum’s future development.
Key highlights of the upgrade include:
– Increasing the staking limit for individual validators from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH.
– Raising the number of “blob” data units per block from 3 to a maximum of 9, significantly increasing data capacity.
– Advancing the transition to the EVM Object Format (EOF), aimed at improving the efficiency of smart contracts.
However, whether the Pectra upgrade will necessarily drive ETH prices higher remains a matter of debate. Market opinions are divided. According to a research report by Christine Kim, Vice President of Research at Galaxy Digital, published in October last year, as Ethereum continues to develop a Rollup-centric scaling architecture, the impact of upgrades at the Layer 1 level on ETH value will gradually diminish.
She believes that the key drivers of Ethereum’s value in the future will shift towards user behavior and economic activity at Layer 2, rather than solely relying on Layer 1 technical optimizations. Christine Kim emphasized, “Advancements in user experience, interoperability, decentralization, and security in the Layer 2 ecosystem will hold greater potential for value enhancement than upgrades at the base layer.”
The above chart illustrates the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) weekly chart, with the current price located within the significant support area established in 2019 and 2020 (approximately 0.0165 to 0.019), which is one of the lowest support zones since 2019. The daily cycle also indicates that the price has been consolidating at the support level for an extended period, with volatility drastically decreasing, indicating a phase of energy accumulation. If a direction emerges, it is highly likely to continue, making it a crucial moment to observe whether the market will leverage this Ethereum upgrade to drive prices.
Follow-up Link
Follow-up Link
Follow-up Link
The yields of ‘GTRadar – BULL’, ‘GTRadar – Balance’, and ‘GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX’ over the past 7 days were -1.98%, -0.25%, and +0.25%, respectively, with yields over the past 30 days at -0.45%, -0.77%, and -0.5%. Currently, ‘GTRadar – BULL’ holds approximately 10% net long positions, primarily in BTC.
