Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex analysts indicate that Bitcoin’s recent rebound is driven by favorable macro factors, including easing tariff tensions and a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance. Moreover, data shows continuous capital inflow into Bitcoin, coupled with an increase in spot trading volume and institutional-led ETF inflows. Bitcoin is currently on a structurally solid foundation, and as long as macro conditions remain favorable, any short-term pullbacks may be quickly absorbed by buying pressure, providing Bitcoin with good conditions to challenge new highs.
Table of Contents
Recent Surge Driven by New Capital
Investor Confidence Restored
Institutional Capital-Led Rally
Bitfinex’s report released on Monday states that the recent price recovery of Bitcoin has not only brought in a new wave of capital inflow but has also revitalized overall market liquidity and participation. While many investors are re-entering the market, some are taking the opportunity to exit at higher levels to reduce risk and lock in profits, “a common phenomenon in the early recovery of a bull market.”
The report highlights the changes in Bitcoin’s “Realised cap,” which represents the total cost basis of all circulating Bitcoins, effectively measuring the actual capital that has flowed into the Bitcoin market historically. Analysts note that as of now, Bitcoin’s realised cap has reached a historic high of $889 billion, reflecting the consistently improving investor confidence and capital influx, with recent signs of strong growth.
Data Source: Glassnode, Image Source: Bitfinex
Bitfinex then discusses the changes in on-chain supply. Analysts state that as prices recover, the supply of tokens in an unrealized loss has sharply decreased from over 5 million to 700,000, approximately 2.9% of the active supply, indicating that over 3 million coins have returned to a profitable state. “Such a shift typically boosts investor confidence and helps form a more supportive market structure.”
Bitfinex believes that as macroeconomic trends become more favorable and on-chain indicators show improved sentiment among major investor groups, short-term price pullbacks are likely to be limited and will receive buying support. Analysts state that unless there are significant changes in the macro situation or investor behavior, their outlook on Bitcoin’s trend remains bullish.
Bitfinex also points out that the recent ETF capital inflow patterns show that “institutional reallocation has resumed,” believing that ETF inflows are gradually decoupling from short-term price pullbacks, indicating that this buying activity is a stable allocation behavior rather than short-term speculation. Additionally, rising spot trading volumes and low volatility indicate that the main force affecting Bitcoin price fluctuations currently comes from institutional capital rather than individual retail speculation.
Bitfinex concludes: Data Source
