GT Radar Weekly Report 5/14: Easing Concerns Over Tariff Wars and Rise of Counterfeits GT Radar Bull Achieves 36% Profit in the Past Month

In the past week, we experienced three major events: the FOMC interest rate decision, China-U.S. tariff negotiations, and the U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The Federal Reserve’s May FOMC meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, but the statement emphasized that economic uncertainty risks have increased further, with the dual challenge of rising unemployment and inflation. Furthermore, Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance during the post-meeting press conference, stating that the Fed does not need to, nor will it, implement preventive rate cuts until U.S. tariff policies become clearer.

On Monday, China and the U.S. issued the Geneva Trade and Economic Statement regarding tariff negotiations. As a result of the talks, the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% within 90 days, while China will lower tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. Both sides will remove almost all of the additional tariffs added since April 2.

Notably, China was the only country treated differently by the U.S., but its progress in negotiations surpassed other nations. This indicates that the Trump administration clearly understands that such high tariffs would exacerbate inflation in the U.S. and negatively affect the domestic economy, thus it had to quickly compromise. After this negotiation, the market’s concerns were significantly eased, and after experiencing severe volatility, U.S. stocks regained all the losses since April 2, with market sentiment turning optimistic.

However, it is essential to emphasize that the Geneva Trade and Economic Statement is temporary. How China and the U.S. continue negotiations and how tariffs will evolve remains uncertain, and investors should not overlook this potential risk.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) last night, which stood at 2.3%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.4%. Core CPI also met the market expectation at 2.8%, indicating that inflation remains under control for now.

However, despite the CPI being slightly below expectations, it has not changed traders’ expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. Over the past week, the probability of “no rate cut” in July has risen to 61%, and the expected number of rate cuts this year has been reduced from 3 to 2. Nevertheless, the impact of tariffs will be felt in the second half of the year, and investors must pay attention to economic and employment data. If the data begins to show signs of recession, this will likely be a time when rate cuts become more likely.

Interestingly, as the economic environment improves, cryptocurrency investors’ risk appetite is gradually increasing. Market funds have begun to flow from Bitcoin into some oversold or more volatile assets, providing new buying momentum for mainstream assets such as Ethereum.

The Meme sector has rebounded strongly after significant declines. Tokens like PEPE, MOONDENG, PNUT, which had experienced substantial drops, have shown gains of 50%, or even multiples of that, in recent weeks. Additionally, AI and DeFi sectors have also seen rotations upward, with Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as ETHFI, OP, ARB performing quite well.

The decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance over the past week is quite evident.

Ethereum, on the other hand, has outperformed Bitcoin, rising by 25% in a single week, marking its highest level since mid-2021. This strong performance has made it one of the key talking points in the market this week, with the GT Radar Weekly Report also mentioning this trading opportunity.

According to Ethereum options data from Deribit, many call contracts have accumulated between $2000–$3200, with sparse activity beyond $3200. This suggests that traders expect Ethereum’s price volatility to remain within this range. Moreover, global Ethereum contract open interest has reached a historic high (over $32 billion), indicating that the market may be somewhat overheated. After this rapid surge, investors should be cautious about potential corrections.

GT Radar Bull Strategy Performance Outperforms the Market

Despite the recent volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum, active quantitative strategies still show significant advantages. For example, the GT Radar portfolio “GTRadar – BULL” has delivered a year-to-date return of 19.33%, outperforming Bitcoin by approximately 9.04% and significantly outperforming Ethereum by approximately -21.49%.

The “GTRadar – BULL” strategy has achieved a 7-day return of 17.18% and a 30-day return of 36.38%, demonstrating its excellent ability to capture market opportunities during fluctuations, while reducing leverage to minimize wear during consolidation periods.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy Recommendations

Both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market have already reflected the positive impact of the China-U.S. tariff negotiations resuming, with the rotation of altcoin themes becoming clearer. This indicates that the overall market is at a critical point from rebound to reversal. In general, although short-term market volatility remains, the medium to long-term bull market structure is becoming clearer. It is recommended that investors actively position during corrections in anticipation of potential new historical highs. For Bitcoin, key resistance levels are the historical high range of $106,000–$109,588, with support levels between $101,000–$103,000. For altcoins, focus on Meme, AI, ETF concepts, L2, and Ethereum-related tokens.

Copy Trading Links

“GTRadar – BULL”, “GTRadar – Balanced”, and “GTRadar – Potential Blockchain OKX” have achieved 7-day returns of 17.18%, +12.16%, and +17.11%, respectively, and 30-day returns of 36.38%, +22.30%, and 18.62%.

Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds approximately 60% of its net long positions in ETH and BTC.

Currently, “GTRadar – Balanced” holds approximately 40% of its net long positions in ETH and BTC.

Currently, “GTRadar – Potential Blockchain” holds approximately 70% of its net long positions in ETH and SOL.

Traders who frequently change investment portfolios tend to have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow a single strategy. Don’t easily end copy trading due to short-term retracements; from the curve chart, retracements are often the best time to start copying, while entering and exiting frequently significantly lowers returns.

Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Powell: Economic Uncertainty Rising, But No Urgency for Rate Cuts

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, in line with market expectations. In the post-meeting statement, the Fed noted that, despite some data being affected by fluctuations in net exports, recent indicators show the economy is still growing at a healthy pace.

MiKamiCoin Meme Coin “Surprise” Launch, Participants Suffer Heavy Losses

A meme coin named “MiKamiCoin,” launched by popular personality Yua Mikami, was stealthily launched at 2 AM last week. However, the coin performed poorly, and the token issuance seemed to prioritize large holders, leading to significant losses for retail investors as large holders sold off their tokens at high prices.

Arizona Enacts Cryptocurrency Reserve Bill HB 2749

Following New Hampshire, Arizona also officially enacted its cryptocurrency reserve bill last week. According to a press release from the state legislature, House Bill 2749 (HB 2749) has been officially signed into law. The bill takes a “budget-neutral” approach, allowing only unclaimed assets, airdrops, and staking rewards to be moved into reserves rather than being liquidated.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: U.S. Should Become “Preferred Destination for Digital Assets”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed support for two cryptocurrency-related bills under consideration in Congress, which focus on stablecoins and a broader market regulatory framework. He believes that digital assets are an important source of innovation and that stablecoin legislation can help drive the global use of the U.S. dollar.