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BlackRock Warns Quantum Computing Poses Threat to Bitcoin
Google Quantum Research Team’s Latest Findings
Is There a Crisis for Bitcoin?
Accelerating the Layout of Quantum-Resistant Mechanisms
This month, asset management giant BlackRock updated the risk disclosures in its Bitcoin ETF filings, explicitly stating that quantum computing could potentially break Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses in the future. In the new risk disclosure, BlackRock emphasized that advanced quantum technologies could theoretically crack private keys, thus invading wallets and stealing assets. This risk update immediately reignited discussions in the market regarding Bitcoin’s capacity to withstand quantum attacks.
The Google quantum research team recently published a key study, revealing that the quantum resources required to break the widely used RSA encryption (for example, used in banking transactions, electronic signatures, and encrypted wallets) are now estimated to be 20 times less than previously thought in 2019. Researcher Craig Gidney stated that previously, at least 20 million noisy qubits were needed to crack a 2048-bit RSA key. Now, with faster algorithms and more efficient error correction techniques, it may be possible to succeed with fewer than 1 million qubits running for about a week. Although the most powerful quantum computers are still at the thousand-qubit level and do not yet pose a practical threat, this breakthrough indicates that the development of quantum technology is progressing faster than expected. The encryption industry and information security infrastructure must begin to confront the impending challenges.
Is There a Crisis for Bitcoin?
While this study focuses on RSA, the elliptic curve encryption (ECC) used by Bitcoin may also become the next victim. Like RSA, ECC relies on specific mathematical operations that may be vulnerable in the face of quantum computers. Although Bitcoin’s 256-bit encryption is theoretically more secure, this layer of protection is becoming less robust as quantum technology advances. According to a previous report from Zombit, the research team Project Eleven has set up a reward (1 BTC) for anyone who can use a quantum computer to crack the “simplified Bitcoin encryption mechanism,” aiming to test how close we are to actual risks. Meanwhile, Google has also pointed out that hackers are likely already collecting current encrypted data, preparing to decrypt it when quantum technology matures. Therefore, they have proactively implemented the next generation of post-quantum encryption standard ML-KEM in their own browsers and internal systems.
Accelerating the Layout of Quantum-Resistant Mechanisms
According to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the United States, encryption algorithms lacking quantum protection will be phased out starting in 2030, but Google’s research shows that this timeline may be too slow. In response, some blockchain projects have already begun to take action. For example, Solana has launched a quantum-resistant wallet mechanism using hash signatures; Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also suggested that on-chain forks (hard forks) may be necessary in the future to address quantum threats. Although current quantum computers are not yet a threat to Bitcoin’s main network, with million-qubit computers expected to emerge within the next 5 to 10 years, the entire cryptocurrency and global communication systems will face reconstruction challenges. Quantum threats are no longer a plot of science fiction but an imminent reality that the industry needs to address proactively.
