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Market Dynamics
In the past week, the overall market experienced its first significant decline since the bull market began a month ago. The weekly report had already warned of potential pullback risks, leading the GT Radar tracking positions to reduce holdings last week, thus avoiding considerable profit retracement. The largest drop occurred last Friday, triggered by the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which came in significantly below expectations, raising market concerns about economic slowdown. Data showed that the probability of a rate cut in September surged from 40% to 80% in a single day, yet the favorable news did not lead to price increases, reflecting growing inflationary concerns coupled with economic weakness. Capital is shifting towards a more conservative stance, with investors opting to secure profits or temporarily withdraw from risk assets. For the cryptocurrency market, this not only added price pressure but also indicated an intensified wait-and-see atmosphere among institutions. Without new policies or capital catalysts, the short-term trend may enter a correction phase.
As for ETFs, the Bitcoin ETF was in a net outflow state until yesterday, with a single-day net outflow reaching $800 million on August 1; institutions like BlackRock have also paused their increases, leading to a loss of market confidence. The Ethereum ETF also experienced its first net outflow last week, but it has turned into a net inflow since yesterday. Meanwhile, altcoins such as BMNR and SBET showed simultaneous weakness, indicating a retreat of leveraged funds. In summary, if this round of the bull market lacks ETF support, coin stocks, institutional backing, and treasury reserves for altcoin projects, significant price increases are unlikely.
Observing the 4-hour chart, BTC has been oscillating within a descending channel since mid-July. After breaking below the channel’s lower edge and previous lows last week, it did not experience a sustained downturn. Instead, it quickly rebounded, with the lows showing a clear upward trend, initially indicating that short-term selling pressure is diminishing and signs of a bottoming out are appearing. The current price is operating within the lower half of the descending channel, supported by a short-term upward trend line indicated by the yellow line. This type of “higher lows + unbroken resistance” structure usually reflects that the market is at a crucial turning point. If it can break through the upper edge of the channel with volume and effectively stand above the $115,500 to $116,000 pressure zone, it will have the opportunity to confirm a wave reversal.
However, until the trend is clear, investors should remain cautious, as the current structure has not formed “higher highs” yet, and the overall situation still appears weak within the channel. Two key points to watch for short-term operations: if the upward trend line below (around $113,000) is breached, it would be considered a sign of short-term weakness; conversely, if it breaks through $116,000 and transitions to support, that would confirm the beginning of a new rebound trend.
This week, the overall market has entered a correction as we anticipated last week. From the ETF data, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen significant capital outflows. However, Ethereum’s net inflow turned positive yesterday, while Bitcoin has experienced a net outflow for four consecutive days, indicating that market interest in purchasing Ethereum is higher than that of Bitcoin.
At the same time, institutional purchase demand has been accelerating since the end of July. As of the writing of this article, entities holding Ethereum as a reserve asset have accumulated over 3 million ETH, accounting for approximately 2.52% of the total supply. Among them, SharpLink Gaming’s holdings have surpassed 500,000 ETH this week, demonstrating the confidence these institutions have in Ethereum.
Yesterday, Coinbase’s L2 network, Base, unexpectedly halted block production for 33 minutes. Investigation revealed that the delay was due to the sorter lagging, causing the system to switch to a backup sorter, which was not ready for use, resulting in the entire network going offline. Although the downtime was brief and did not cause significant impact or losses, it highlights the reliability and value of Ethereum as a “world computer.” Since Ethereum’s inception, several competitors have emerged; however, almost all blockchain networks have experienced downtime issues, with the most notorious example being its top competitor, Solana, which has faced multiple outages over the years, to the point where the community has become “unfazed” by it. Other networks like Aptos, Sui, Avalanche, and Polygon have also had outages. In contrast, Ethereum has never experienced block halting or downtime since its inception.
The current market generally believes that Ethereum’s future value will depend on its ability to become the preferred infrastructure for “stablecoins and RWA assets.” For institutions looking to enter this field, network “uptime” is deemed more important than “high performance.” For financial institutions, asset managers, and government agencies, a 99.99% uptime stability is the basic requirement, even more acceptable than slightly higher transaction fees. For example, if an international asset tokenization platform chooses to deploy on a particular chain, but that chain “occasionally goes offline for an hour,” this equates to temporarily inaccessible or unliquidated assets, creating difficulties in risk management. Since its launch in 2015, Ethereum’s mainnet has never stopped block production, a remarkable record in the blockchain world (other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, no other options are available). This characteristic makes it easier for institutions to view it as “infrastructure” rather than “experimental technology,” which is why many RWA projects choose to deploy on Ethereum’s mainnet.
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The returns for “GTRadar – BULL” and “GTRadar – Balance” over the past 7 days are -1.21% and -2.11%, respectively, with returns over the past 30 days at +47.51% and +40.25%. Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of about 10%, mainly in ETH. “GTRadar – Balance” holds a net long position of about 5%, mainly in ETH and LTC.
Long-term followers who frequently change portfolios tend to have lower returns compared to those who consistently follow one portfolio, so do not be swayed by short-term fluctuations.
Market pullbacks easily end follow-ups, and from the curve chart, pullbacks are actually a good time to start following trades, while entering and exiting can significantly reduce returns.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady: Internal Opinions Divided, September Rate Cut Expectations Frustrated
The Federal Reserve of the United States decided on July 30 to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, the decision-making process saw two board members oppose, advocating for a rate cut, marking the highest level of dissent since 1993. ### Powell stated at a press conference that there is currently no urgent reason to lower rates and that future data needs to be observed, particularly the impacts related to inflation and Trump’s tariff policies. Although the market had anticipated a potential rate cut in September, the FOMC statement did not explicitly hint at this direction, causing traders’ expectations for a September rate cut to be dampened.
White House Releases Comprehensive Cryptocurrency Policy Report!
The “Digital Assets Working Group,” established by President Trump, recently released the long-awaited cryptocurrency policy report, spanning 168 pages. The report outlines regulatory recommendations for the future of the cryptocurrency industry in the United States. Topics include market structure, regulatory jurisdiction, banking regulations, strategies for reinforcing the dollar’s dominance through stablecoins, and taxation of cryptocurrencies.
Robinhood Reports Better-than-Expected Q2 Revenue
U.S. brokerage Robinhood announced its second-quarter financial report on Wednesday, revealing a 32% year-over-year increase in cryptocurrency transaction volume, reaching $28 billion. Revenue related to cryptocurrency trading experienced a substantial growth of 98%, totaling $160 million. During this quarter, Robinhood also launched tokenization services, further enhancing its long-term strategy in the cryptocurrency business.
Strategy Achieves Record High Net Profit in Q2, Submits $4.2 Billion STRC Issuance Plan
U.S. Bitcoin financial firm Strategy released its Q2 financial report after market hours on Thursday, reporting total revenue of $114.5 million, a 2.7% year-over-year increase. Operating profit was approximately $1.403 billion. Concurrently with the financial report, Strategy submitted a special stock STRC issuance plan worth $4.2 billion, stating that the funds raised would be used to further increase Bitcoin holdings.
U.S. SEC Launches ‘Project Crypto’ Regulatory Reform Initiative
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ### Paul Atkins announced the initiation of the “Project Crypto” program, aimed at modernizing the securities regulatory framework to respond to the advent of digital assets. The program seeks to provide clear regulatory guidance for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, allowing more innovation to develop under legal protection, and strengthening the U.S.’s leadership position in global digital finance competition.
JPMorgan CEO Affirms Value of Stablecoins and Blockchain, Will Participate in Crypto Market to Meet Client Demand
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently expressed his belief in the development prospects of stablecoins and blockchain technology, although he remains cautious about Bitcoin. He emphasized that JPMorgan will participate in the market to meet client demand.
Employment Data Severely Revised! Trump Fires Labor Statistics Bureau Director
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he has fired Erika McEntarfer, the director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and will announce a successor within three to four days. Trump emphasized his “lack of confidence” in the employment data released by the bureau, criticizing the recent employment report as “absurd.”
U.S. Futures Commission Launches ‘Crypto Sprint’ Initiative in Collaboration with SEC to Implement Trump’s Cryptocurrency Policy Blueprint
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) acting ### Caroline Pham announced last weekend that the agency would launch a new initiative called “Crypto Sprint” to begin implementing the recommendations from the White House’s cryptocurrency policy report. The agency also announced plans to permit Bitcoin spot trading on futures exchanges this week.
White House to Propose Executive Order! Targeting Bank Discrimination Practices
According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, the White House is preparing to increase pressure on major banks regarding their alleged actions to close accounts of conservative individuals and cryptocurrency companies “based on political stance,” intending to combat this through executive order. A draft obtained by the Wall Street Journal indicates that this executive order will threaten to impose fines on such financial institutions.
BitMine Announces Ether Holdings Surpass 833,000, Supported by Legendary Investor Bill Miller
Led by renowned analyst and co-founder of the investment research firm Fundstrat, Thomas “Tom” Lee, Ether financial company BitMine Immersion Technologies (stock code: BMNR) announced on Monday that its Ether (ETH) holdings are now worth over $2.9 billion. As of August 3, the company’s Ether holdings have reached 833,137, making BitMine the largest Ether reserve company in the world.
U.S. Ether Spot ETF Sees $465 Million Net Outflow in One Day, Setting New Record
According to statistics from SoSoValue, the U.S. Ether spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded approximately $465 million in net capital outflow on Monday, setting a new record for single-day net outflows.
SEC Greenlights! Certain Liquidity Staking Activities Not Classified as Securities Issuance
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a statement this week, clearly indicating that under specific circumstances, certain liquidity staking activities involving cryptocurrencies do not constitute securities issuance. This statement is viewed as a significant milestone in the SEC’s regulatory stance on crypto assets, providing clearer guidance for the industry and potentially opening new avenues for DeFi and institutional adoption.
SharpLink Increases Ether Holdings by 83,561, Total Holdings Exceed 520,000
Ether financial company SharpLink Gaming announced on Tuesday that it increased its holdings by 83,561 Ether (ETH) last week, with an average purchase price of $3,634, bringing its total holdings to 521,939 ETH, valued at approximately $1.87 billion.
Brazil’s Congress Discusses Establishing Bitcoin Reserves
The Brazilian Federal Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to hold a public hearing on August 20 to discuss a bill aimed at establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, proposing to use up to 5% of treasury funds to purchase Bitcoin, potentially totaling $15 billion.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar’s official announcements, and individual users may experience slight discrepancies due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!
