Markus Thielen, an analyst at Matrixport, stated in a report released on Thursday (14th) that even if a Bitcoin spot ETF does not receive approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024, it is still possible to see higher cryptocurrency market prices next year.
Thielen mentioned several factors, including increased liquidity, the Bitcoin halving event, and the possibility of Donald Trump being re-elected as the U.S. President, which would serve as catalysts for further price increases.
Thielen wrote that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the amount of funds in the U.S. money market funds has increased from $3 trillion to $6.1 trillion. This growth means that annual interest payments are approximately $370 billion, equivalent to approximately $1 billion per day. He believes that these funds can “easily” flow into riskier investments such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Thielen believes that this $6.1 trillion capital could also be used to drive up asset prices.
2024 is the year of the Bitcoin halving, when the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Thielen pointed out that the average Bitcoin price has risen by 192% during halving years.
Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election
The analyst also stated that 2024 is the year of the U.S. Presidential election, and Trump is “very likely” to be re-elected. His policies could boost the U.S. economy, stock market, and cryptocurrency prices.
Thielen pointed out that although a Republican President may regain control of the White House, Gary Gensler, the Democratic SEC chairman, may continue to serve until June 2026. Thielen expects that by then, a Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved. However, he added that Trump, who has launched his own NFT series, is likely to support another measure that consolidates digital assets as an economic cornerstone.
However, Thielen predicts that the Bitcoin price will remain in the range of $40,000 to $45,000 for the remaining weeks of 2023 and then attempt a rebound in January next year as traders focus on the potential approval date of the Bitcoin spot ETF.
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