According to The Block, analysts from Standard Chartered Bank believe that the market generally expects the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs this week, which could attract capital inflows of up to $50 billion to $100 billion this year.
Standard Chartered Bank compares Bitcoin spot ETFs to gold ETFs, noting that these funds have fundamentally changed the way investors enter the gold market. Specifically, the bank uses the first U.S. gold ETF, “SPDR Gold Shares” (GLD), as a comparison. GLD, launched in 2004, is currently the world’s largest physically backed gold ETF.
In a report on Monday (8th), the analyst team led by Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank wrote:
This figure is Standard Chartered Bank’s estimate of near-bottom inflows. In the case of “excessive” inflows, the bank expects potential capital inflows of $130 billion, and capital inflows of $50 billion to $100 billion in 2024 “seem reasonable.”
Several Bitcoin spot ETF applicants also estimate billions of dollars flowing into the market. For example, asset management company VanEck expects $1 billion to flow in the first few days and $2.4 billion in the first quarter. Digital asset investment firm Galaxy estimates $14 billion of capital inflows in the first year. Cryptocurrency index and fund provider Bitwise expects the market size to reach approximately $72 billion within five years.
Related report: “Galaxy Report: Bitcoin Spot ETF’s first-year capital inflows may reach $14.4 billion, driving a 74% price increase.”
Standard Chartered Bank sees the potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs as a “watershed moment” for institutional investors’ normalization of Bitcoin participation, and expects the Bitcoin price to rise significantly by the end of 2025. The bank points out that within seven to eight years after the launch of GLD, the gold price increased by 4.3 times, indicating the market performance after the maturity of gold ETP holdings.
Standard Chartered Bank analysts previously predicted that Bitcoin could reach $50,000 in 2023 when it was around $30,000, and although Bitcoin’s subsequent performance met the bank’s bullish expectations, it still had a gap of nearly 10% compared to last year’s peak price (approximately $44,800). Additionally, the bank has also predicted that Ether (ETH) could reach $8,000 by the end of 2026.
Ether spot ETFs may be launched in the second quarter
Several companies have also applied for Ether spot ETFs, and Standard Chartered Bank expects these ETFs to be approved in the second quarter of this year.
Standard Chartered Bank states that the SEC’s view on Ether ETFs will differ from Bitcoin ETFs because SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has previously stated that, except for Bitcoin, other currencies may be considered securities. However, it is worth noting that Ether was not among the 67 coins and tokens claimed to be securities by the SEC in lawsuits against several exchanges. Therefore, “Ether spot ETFs may eventually be approved.”
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