According to the latest study by cryptocurrency research firm Coin Metrics, it is almost impossible for even “national-level entities” to carry out a 51% attack on the Bitcoin or Ethereum network.
A 51% attack refers to when a malicious actor possesses over 51% of the computational power in a proof-of-work system like Bitcoin or over 51% of the cryptocurrency in a proof-of-stake network like Ethereum. In theory, attackers can use this centralized power to manipulate the blockchain, such as preventing specific transactions from being confirmed or reversing transactions to carry out double-spending attacks, thus disrupting the network.
In their report on February 15th, Coin Metrics researchers Lucas Nuzzi, Kyle Water, and Matias Andrade pointed out that due to the current capital costs and operational expenses of the network, it is no longer feasible for nation-state attackers to sustain such attacks.
The authors used a metric called “Total Cost of Attack (TCA)” to quantify the cost required to attack a blockchain network.
Ultimately, the research found that there is no viable approach to profit from any hypothetical attacks against Bitcoin and Ether networks, meaning there is no economic incentive for attackers to carry out such attacks.
By analyzing secondary market data and real-time computational power output data, the study revealed that conducting a 51% attack on Bitcoin would require an entity to purchase an astounding “7 million ASIC mining machines,” which would cost around $20 billion. Even if there was enough money, there are simply not enough ASIC mining machines available in the market.
But what if the entity has the capability to manufacture their own mining machines? The research indicated that even assuming a nation-level attacker has enough resources to manufacture their own mining machines, the total cost estimate would still exceed $20 billion, as Bitmain AntMiner S9 is currently the only device available for reverse engineering.
The continuous growth of liquidity staking protocol Lido has been seen by many as a significant threat to the Ethereum network. However, the research suggests that concerns about a 34% stake attack from Lido validators on Ethereum may be unnecessary. The report states that attacking the Ethereum blockchain would not only require an extremely long time but also significant costs. Lucas Nuzzi stated,
