Blockchain analysis firm Glassnode said on Friday (15th) that nine out of ten risk framework indicators measuring the risk status of the Bitcoin market have shown very high risk signals.
One of the indicators showing a high-risk signal is “Bitcoin Supply Profitability State”, which measures the proportion of tokens with a cost basis lower than the current market price. Glassnode said that the current proportion of this indicator has reached 99.3%, indicating that the current Bitcoin price is “in an extremely high-risk stage, and this structure appeared for the first time in this cycle 94 days ago.”
Another indicator showing high risk is the “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” (NUPL) indicator, which reflects the state of market sentiment. Currently, its reading is 0.64, which means that the market is in an excited state.
During periods of high prices and high market sentiment, people usually shift their attention to long-term holders and those who are less inclined to spend their held tokens. Glassnode’s Spending Binary Indicator for long-term holders shows the time when this particular group increases their spending behavior on the chain. Analysts pointed out that this period of extremely high risk (red part below the picture, with the spending rate of long-term holders heating up as the price reaches the most recent new high) began 11 days ago.
The only indicator that remains low is the Miners fee revenue binary indicator, which measures the proportion of days in the previous month when the pressure in the miners fee market increased daily.
Source: Glassnode
