Bitcoin experienced a sharp price correction starting from last weekend, followed by a quick rebound after this week’s FOMC meeting. However, according to a report released yesterday by Morgan Stanley analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, two indicators, “Morgan Stanley’s Futures Position Proxy” and “Bitcoin Futures Price Premium Relative to Spot,” suggest that only a small amount of positions have been closed so far, indicating that Bitcoin is still in an “overbought state.”
There is significant optimism in the market regarding the price increase of Bitcoin at the end of the year. This optimism is driven by expectations of continued demand for spot ETFs and a reduction in Bitcoin supply after the halving event. However, recent data shows a slowdown in net inflows to Bitcoin spot ETFs, challenging the market’s confidence in the continuous inflow of funds into spot ETFs. Morgan Stanley analysts stated:
Last week, analysts predicted that after the halving, due to reduced miner rewards and increased production costs, the price of Bitcoin could fall to around $42,000.
