Market Analysis – BTC Approaching Convergence, $60,000 Becomes Key Support Level
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balanced
Highlights
BTC continues to trade within a consolidation range, with the weekly chart showing a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks. The price has dropped by about 20% from its high point. However, the altcoin market has shown a very polarized state. Yesterday, the altcoin market experienced another major decline, with most altcoins falling more than 40% from their highs over the past two months. The market is currently in a very depressed state, and making profits in such a market is very difficult.
However, the meme coin sector has continued to perform strongly. PEPE even reached a new all-time high today, and related tokens have generally resisted the overall market decline. The AI sector has also performed well recently, but after Open AI announced its latest CpatGPT-4o, related tokens experienced a “sell the news” phenomenon, with declines of more than 5% across the board.
Overall, the current cryptocurrency market has lost its independent catalyst, making it sensitive to changes in the macroeconomy. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced yesterday that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April had a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2%, higher than the 2.10% in March, setting a new high for the past 12 months. From the PPI alone, it can be seen that inflation in the United States has not been alleviated, which is unfavorable for expectations of potential interest rate cuts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will be announced tonight at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time. This data will be the most important indicator for whether there will be an interest rate cut, so it is highly anticipated by the market. It can be expected that tonight will be a volatile night.
According to data from Investing.com, the current market expectation is that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April will remain at 3.4%, with the previous value at 3.5%.
It is worth noting that CPI has been higher than market expectations for four consecutive times, indicating that inflationary pressures may take longer to ease. In addition, except for February, after the three previous CPI announcements, Bitcoin has experienced a subsequent decline of about 15%. Therefore, investors must be cautious about this CPI data.
From a technical perspective, BTC is still consolidating within a range. However, it can be observed that the previous resistance area for the range’s high point was around $66,000. In the past week, the high point has started to be suppressed by the EMA 200, and volatility has gradually converged, indicating a potential upcoming storm. With the launch of Bitcoin spot ETF and its increasing connection with US stocks, the announcement of the CPI data by the Federal Reserve tonight will greatly affect the trend. $60,000 will become a very important support level in the short and medium term. Currently, it can be said that it is standing on the edge of a cliff. If the CPI data is higher than market expectations, a decline is inevitable. If it breaks below the support, it may further drop towards $57,000.
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“GTRadar – BULL” and “GTRadar – Balanced” have a return rate of -3.19% and -0.01% respectively in the past 7 days, and -2.44% and -3.42% in the past 30 days.
“GTRadar – BULL” added a new long-side entry strategy on May 11th last week. This strategy focuses on capturing short-term rebounds with lower stop loss and take profit levels. It uses multiple cryptocurrencies with lower individual order amounts and does not exceed 20% of the total holding in the strategy’s fully invested state.
In the past week, the overall market has been mainly declining, and the trading and holding ratios of both strategies are still not high.
Currently, “GTRadar – BULL” holds a net long position of about 30% (full position with 3 times leverage is 300%).
Currently, “GTRadar – Balanced” holds a larger number of cryptocurrencies with a greater divergence between long and short positions, but the positions are not large. It holds a net short position of about 5% (full position with 3 times leverage is 300%).
Followers who frequently change their investment portfolios actually have lower long-term returns compared to those who consistently follow one portfolio. Do not easily end your followership due to short-term retracements. From the chart, retracements are actually a good time to start following, and frequent entry and exit will significantly reduce the return rate.
Steve Eisman, the prototype character of “The Big Short,” calls cryptocurrencies one of the major themes of the current era.
In a recent interview, Steve Eisman, the prototype character of the movie “The Big Short” and a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, shared his insights on the upcoming US presidential election and his investment strategy. He stated that cryptocurrencies are one of the three major themes of the current era, although he remains skeptical about them.
US presidential candidate Donald Trump claims to understand cryptocurrencies and intends to accept cryptocurrency donations.
US presidential candidate Donald Trump held a special event for holders of Trump NFTs at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Wednesday evening. During the event, he expressed support for cryptocurrencies and criticized current US President Joe Biden for his lack of understanding in this area. This speech has caused a surge in volume in the cryptocurrency community and a significant increase in related meme coins.
European regulatory authorities are considering including cryptocurrencies in the €12 trillion UCITS investment market.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is currently seeking opinions from stakeholders, including businesses and experts, to decide whether qualified assets for Undertakings for the Collective Investment of Transferable Securities (UCITS) should be expanded to include cryptocurrencies, catastrophe bonds, carbon emission quotas, and other asset classes. Considering the market size of UCITS at €12 trillion, this move could allow cryptocurrencies to enter a larger market than the US Bitcoin ETF.
The Executive Yuan approves the “Anti-Fraud New Four Laws”! Unregistered foreign currency dealers may face imprisonment of less than 2 years.
The Executive Yuan approved the “Anti-Fraud New Four Laws” last week and will submit them to the Legislative Yuan for review. These four laws are the “Anti-Fraud Act,” “Anti-Money Laundering Act,” “Technological Investigation and Protection Act,” and “Communication Security and Supervision Act.” Among them, the new regulations in the “Anti-Money Laundering Act” will have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency industry, bringing cryptocurrency exchanges under regulation from three aspects.
Pantera Capital founder claims that the investment in TON is the largest in Pantera’s history.
Cryptocurrency venture capital firm Pantera Capital previously disclosed its investment in Telegram’s TON ecosystem. Last week, founder Dan Morehead explained the investment logic behind the firm’s investment in TON tokens on social media platform X, stating that it is the largest investment the company has made to date.
SEC issues a Wells Notice to Robinhood! CEO: It is unacceptable for Americans to be unable to access these assets.
Robinhood revealed last Monday that it had received a Wells Notice from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), indicating that the regulatory agency intends to take legal action against the company for alleged violations of securities laws. In response, co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev stated in an interview with CNBC that Robinhood is taking a stand for its customers, and it is “unacceptable” for Americans to be unable to access cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin mining difficulty drops nearly 6%, marking the largest decline since the bear market.
According to The Block, citing data from Bitcoin data tracking platform Bitbo, the mining difficulty of the Bitcoin network has dropped to 83.1 trillion at block height 842,688, a decrease of 5.7%. This is the largest negative adjustment since the low point of the bear market in December 2022 when the difficulty dropped by 7% and the Bitcoin price was around $17,000.
Major financial giants such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo disclose holdings of Bitcoin ETFs! But don’t get too excited.
Several US institutions disclosed their quarterly 13F reports in the past week, and many financial giants unexpectedly revealed their positions in Bitcoin ETFs. However, the amounts are insignificant compared to their asset management scale. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that these institutions are market makers or Authorized Participants (APs). Their holdings do not necessarily represent anything; they only indicate that they held that many shares on March 31. In other words, the holdings of these institutions in Bitcoin spot ETFs may not be based on investment purposes.
10x Research: Stablecoin Inflows Almost Zero Growth Since Bitcoin Halving
Digital asset research firm 10x Research stated in a report released on Sunday that before the Bitcoin (BTC) halving on April 20, the cryptocurrency market had received approximately $42 billion in inflows. However, since the halving, stablecoin inflows have seen almost zero growth, and Bitcoin futures leverage has decreased significantly.
“The GameStonk Short Squeeze” promoter returns, and the meme coin with the same name soars over 6,000%.
Keith Gill, also known as Roaring Kitty, the promoter who led retail investors against Wall Street institutions in the famous “GameStonk Short Squeeze” event in January 2021, resurfaced on X community this week and posted a meme. Although Roaring Kitty did not say anything, it triggered a surge in the price of GME and related meme coins.
Kaiko: Recent decline in Bitcoin fee revenue may cause selling pressure from miners.
Cryptocurrency data provider Kaiko stated in a report released on Monday that the average daily network fee of Bitcoin surged after the halving event, relieving some of the pain for miners. However, with the initial excitement around the Runes protocol cooling down, fees have dropped, which may trigger selling pressure from miners.
A large number of Ethereum call options concentrate on June, with the strike price above $3,600.
The open interest structure of Ethereum options on the Deribit cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform shows that a large number of call options concentrate on the end of June, with over 617,000 contracts and a notional value of over $1.8 billion. The concentration of bullish contracts and their large notional value may reflect market confidence in Ethereum’s rise before the expiration date at the end of June. If derivatives traders choose to exercise their options when the price starts to exceed a specific strike price, this concentration of call options may also support the price of digital assets.
US retirement funds enter the market! Wisconsin Investment Board holds $163 million worth of Bitcoin spot ETF.
According to the 13F report submitted on Tuesday, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) of the United States held Bitcoin spot ETFs worth about $163 million as of the end of the first quarter of 2024. The SWIB is an independent state government agency responsible for managing public pension funds and other trust funds. The board has previously made other cryptocurrency investments, and in the latest 13F filing, in addition to investments in Web3, it also maintained investments in traditional financial instruments.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is from GT Radar’s official announcements, and there may be slight differences for each user due to different entry and exit prices. Past performance does not guarantee future results!
