Market Analysis – ETH Surges 20% on ETF News, Is it Still a Good Entry?
GTRadar – BULL Analysis
GTRadar – Balanced Analysis
Market Potential Opportunities
Ethereum Ecosystem and SOL Ecosystem
NVIDIA Quarterly Earnings Report Released Tonight, Focus on AI-related Coins
Headline News
Yesterday, May 21, a post from Bloomberg analyst mentioned that the SEC’s attitude towards Ethereum ETFs may undergo a major change. As soon as the news came out, ETH surged more than 20% in a day, leading to an overall market rally. BTC also rose by about 8% within a day. This news injected a strong boost into the cryptocurrency market, which had been in a slump for about two months. As of now, ETH reached a high of over $3,800, and BTC also briefly surpassed $72,000. Currently, there is a slight pullback.
Originally, the market had a pessimistic attitude towards whether the SEC would approve the Ethereum ETF on May 23. However, one of the reasons for such a big turnaround may be attributed to political factors. The end of this year is the U.S. presidential election, and in the increasingly heated campaign, both candidates from the two major parties will try their best to release bullish news to gain voter support. Recently, Republican presidential candidate Trump has been labeled as crypto-friendly and has opened up cryptocurrency donations. In comparison, Democratic candidate Biden has not done much in the field of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, there may be rumors that the ruling party wants to pressure the SEC to approve bullish news related to cryptocurrencies to win more cryptocurrency voters. This is also why some macro analysts believe that the probability of the Ethereum ETF being approved has increased significantly this time.
Reviewing this surge in ETH, there were actually signs before the rally. The main players in Bitfinex’s ETH/BTC spot market increased their long positions with leverage for the third time since March 11 on May 19. This is the largest increase in two years for Bitfinex, indicating that the main players are bullish on ETH. In addition, from a technical perspective, before breaking the descending trend line, the 12-hour MACD indicator had multiple bullish divergences at the bottom, forming a bullish signal. These two signals were also mentioned in GT Radar’s community before the rally. Congratulations to the community members who noticed.
From the current trend, it is not recommended for those who have not entered the market to chase the rise of ETH now. First of all, ETH is less than 7% away from its previous high of $4,100 in March this year, so even if it rises, the profit potential is limited. Secondly, as mentioned earlier, the main players in Bitfinex have significantly reduced their positions and taken profits. Furthermore, the market has already fully reacted to the increased probability of the Ethereum ETF being approved. Therefore, chasing the rise of ETH now is like gambling on the decision on May 23.
According to Bloomberg data, the Ethereum ETF applied by VanEck will face the final decision on May 23 in U.S. time, while the Ethereum ETF applied by Ark and 21 Shares will face the final decision on May 24. If approved, it will definitely lead to a rise in prices, but in case it is not approved, a short-term correction is certain. Therefore, it is recommended that futures players do not chase the rise now. However, spot players can consider entering the market now and wait for the decision to be announced before buying more. Because from the current overall trend, the market has already found a direction, and the overall probability of the Altcoin market rising is high. GT Radar will also adjust its positions this week, shifting from conservative mode to aggressive mode.
GTRadar – BULL and GTRadar – Balanced have achieved a yield of +11.11% and +5.19% in the past 7 days, respectively. In the past 30 days, the yield of GTRadar – BULL was +7.53% and GTRadar – Balanced was +1.41%.
Both portfolios have experienced significant growth in profits in the past week, with BULL’s yield increasing significantly. The main reason is the stimulation from the news of the ETH spot ETF on May 21, which caused a market surge.
Currently, GTRadar – BULL has a net long position of about 150% (full position is 300%).
GTRadar – Balanced currently holds a larger position, with ETH being the most profitable. The overall position is about 80% (full position is 300%).
Both portfolios are expected to be adjusted before Friday, May 24. The allocation ratio will be shifted from conservative to aggressive. Users who want to increase their follow-up amount must complete it before this Friday.
Followers who frequently change portfolios tend to have lower long-term returns compared to followers who consistently follow one portfolio. Do not easily terminate your follow-up due to short-term drawdowns. From the perspective of the curve, drawdowns are actually good entry points. In and out trades only significantly reduce returns.
With the positive news of the Ethereum spot ETF, related ecosystems may also benefit. Concepts like Ethereum Layer 2 such as ARB and OP have risen more than 20% yesterday. The DEFI sector has also benefited from the rise, with LDO rising nearly 40% in two days. It can be said that the Ethereum ecosystem, which has been cooling for a long time, may restart speculative topics. Furthermore, if the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it is conceivable that besides ETH itself, there will be a significant increase in other spot ETF targets. Just like when the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, the market immediately shifted its focus to ETH. Currently, SOL has the highest probability of being approved as the next spot ETF target, so closely monitor the movements in related ecosystems.
NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report will be released tonight, and the market generally has high expectations for future growth, especially after the release of the latest version of ChatGPT4o, which immediately sparked imagination in the AI market. Wall Street is also bullish on the future demand for AI. Although most AI projects in the cryptocurrency market currently do not have notable products, there may be significant fluctuations following NVIDIA’s earnings announcement.
The Ethereum spot ETF applied by VanEck has been listed on the DTCC, with the stock code ETHV.
The Ethereum spot ETF applied by global investment management company VanEck has been added to the ETF list on the website of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). However, this listing is just part of the preparation process and does not mean that the company’s Ethereum ETF has been fully launched, as the fund is still awaiting regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Approval of the Ethereum spot ETF is expected to drive open interest in futures contracts to a record $14 billion.
Due to the market’s positive expectations for the approval of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF application, open interest for Ethereum futures contracts has reached a record $14.6 billion, and ETH prices have risen more than 16% in the past 24 hours. Prominent analysts have raised the probability of the SEC approving the Ethereum spot ETF from 25% to 75%. The SEC is scheduled to make a decision on VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF on May 23, which is highly anticipated by the market.
Dragonfly Capital Partner: “VC Coins” are Like Rats Crossing the Street, Who is to Blame for the Continuous Decline of New Tokens?
New tokens have been falling since they were listed, especially since April, this phenomenon has become more apparent. What is the reason behind this? The article analyzes three main reasons that mainstream sources attribute to this: venture capitalists/KOLs selling to retail investors, retail investors giving up these tokens and instead buying meme coins, and the limited supply of these tokens, making it difficult to achieve meaningful price discovery.
How is the Crypto Narrative Changing? AI Remains Popular, BRC20 Coins Moving Out of Sight
How can we measure the current narrative hotspots in the crypto market? Kaito provides a method to calculate the user’s attention to narratives (mindshare). In simple terms, this index measures the dominance of a narrative in social communication relative to the entire market (in percentage). The denominator is composed of users in the crypto Twitter circle from proprietary search engine and social graph data, while the numerator is the number of mentions of each narrative on social platforms. This provides the most quantitative and comprehensive narrative view in any market cycle.
Study on the Influence of Crypto KOL Tweets: Short-term Long Calls are Clearly Effective, an Average Loss of $79 After Following for One Month with $1,000
For retail investors, paying attention to various KOL bloggers’ long calls is an important source of obtaining wealth codes. So, are KOL long calls always profitable or just occasional coincidences? Research shows that when key opinion leaders (KOLs) mention certain cryptocurrencies on Twitter, these tokens often experience negative returns over a longer period of time. This phenomenon may be due to investors’ overreactions and market sentiment fluctuations. The study analyzed the correlation between multiple KOL tweets and token price trends and concluded that investors should be cautious about such information to avoid potential losses.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data is from GT Radar’s official announcements, and each user may have slight differences in entry and exit prices. Past performance does not guarantee future results!
