Although the action of asset management company Vaneck submitting the SOL ETF has caused excitement among many Solana supporters and even led to a significant rebound in the SOL price, industry professionals hold contrasting views on the approval of the SOL ETF.
Founder of cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, believes that the possibility of the SOL ETF being approved this year is almost zero, and he suggests that the application was submitted primarily for public relations purposes. Furthermore, even if the SOL ETF is approved, the inflow of funds would be minimal.
Additionally, Evgeny Gaevoy also emphasized that while Wintermute is a long-term supporter of SOL and ETH, it is important to be realistic as the adoption of cryptocurrencies takes time.
On the other hand, Haseeb Qureshi, a partner at investment firm Dragonfly Capital, shares a similar viewpoint. Qureshi believes that ETFs based on BTC and ETH meet the market regulatory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) because the future markets for these assets have already matured. “Without a futures market, they cannot meet the market regulatory standards,” said Haseeb Qureshi.
Furthermore, James Seyffart, an ETF expert at Bloomberg Intelligence, also stated that the chance of approval for SOL ETF would only come after a change in political parties and personnel reshuffling at the White House and SEC, and the earliest possible launch would be in 2025. Even then, approval is not guaranteed.
The biggest legal obstacle faced by the SOL ETF is that the enforcement division of the SEC has repeatedly stated that SOL is an unregistered security. This opinion from the SEC is based on securities laws passed in the early 1930s and the Howey test, which determines what constitutes an “investment contract.”
