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Market Analysis – BTC rebounds weakly and tests the bottom again, ETH ETF may go online in mid-month
Binance follow-up analysis
GTRadar – BULL
GTRadar – Balance
Market potential opportunities
SOL ETF adds a new narrative, but don’t be too optimistic
Solana’s strong technology and ecosystem
Solana’s profitability far exceeds its peers
Focus News
In June, BTC fell by 7%, and in early July, BTC rose all the way to the planned red pressure zone of around $63,000, reaching a peak of over $64,000. However, the decline started again last night, even though Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish remarks in the early hours of yesterday did not stop BTC from further falling. Currently, the price has fallen back to around $61,000, and the AltCoin market is also weakening, with only the SOL ecosystem showing relatively strong performance.
In July, two things to focus on are Mt. Gox’s payout to creditors of billions of dollars’ worth of BTC, which caused significant market volatility last week, but most analysts believe that the selling pressure will be short-lived, and the market has enough liquidity to withstand this selling pressure. The other is the application for an ETH spot ETF. The SEC has requested the issuer of the ETH spot ETF to submit a modified S-1 registration form by 7/8. Therefore, according to the schedule, theoretically, trading of the ETH spot ETF can begin in mid-July or at the latest by the end of July. It is worth paying special attention to ETH-related currencies in the ecosystem, with ENS showing relatively bright performance in the past week. Meanwhile, Solana fund management company VanEck has submitted the first Solana spot ETF based on SOL prices in the US, so the related ecosystem has performed well in the past week. However, the chances of approval are currently very low and may only have short-term speculative effects, as detailed in the following sections.
From a technical perspective, BTC has fallen back to the bottom range, and the support and pressure areas have not changed. Operations can focus on the range operation mentioned in the weekly report last week, with low entry below $61,000, exit at the pressure zone of $63,000, and stop loss set at the previous low of $58,000. Since March, the overall market has lacked upward momentum, lacking a single direction, with players inside the field either cutting each other or trading high points of VC coins, making operations difficult. It is still recommended to be conservative during this time.
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The returns of ‘GTRadar – BULL’ and ‘GTRadar – Balance’ in the past 7 days are -0.64% and -0.32%, respectively, and in the past 30 days, they are -15.48% and -2.03%, respectively.
In the past week, the market has been oscillating, with BTC challenging $63,000 in the short term and then falling back to the major support of $61,000. Other AltCoins have also fallen in sync, essentially erasing the small gains of the past few days, with only SOL showing relatively strong performance due to the ETF application. There has been no significant change in the overall portfolio return curve in the past week.
Currently, ‘GTRadar – BULL’ holds a net long position of about 70% (full position is 300%), with a larger position in SOL and ETH. Meanwhile, ‘GTRadar – Balance’ has a net long position of about 30% (full position is 300%), with ETH and BNB as the main long positions.
Long-term followers of constantly changing investment portfolios may have lower returns than those who continuously follow a single portfolio. Do not easily end the follow-up just because of short-term pullbacks. From the curve, a pullback is actually a good time to start following, as in and out will greatly reduce the return.
This week, Solana fund management company VanEck submitted the first Solana spot ETF based on SOL prices in the US, injecting a strong stimulus for SOL token holders and providing a new theme for the token’s value narrative. However, from a rational perspective, the possibility of approval for the Solana spot ETF seems not so high due to SOL’s asset positioning. First, the SEC has always classified Bitcoin as a commodity and has not clearly defined Ethereum as a security. In contrast, the SEC has explicitly stated in lawsuits against Coinbase and Kraken exchanges that SOL is an unregistered security, and these lawsuits are still ongoing. It is unlikely that the SEC will approve the listing of the Solana spot ETF, especially since there is currently no SOL futures ETF on the securities market, adding further obstacles to potential approval.
The current mainstream consensus in the market is that unless there is a change of government after the election, with a reshuffle of personnel in the White House and the SEC, there is a loosening of the tough attitude towards cryptocurrencies, the SOL ETF “may” be approved, but it is expected to be as early as 2025 at the earliest.
Since Solana cannot be approved, does this mean that SOL is not a worthy investment target? We believe that even with a lower probability of ETF approval, Solana is still the blockchain network with the most development potential in the current cryptocurrency industry.
The collapse of the FTX/Alameda project has put Solana, which was previously “strongly tied” to the group, under significant selling pressure, but SOL has survived under such pressure, even reaching a historic high. Several institutions have acquired a large amount of locked Solana at prices ranging from $64 to $100 from FTX’s legacy, indicating that these institutions still have significant confidence in SOL.
Furthermore, in this year’s meme coin craze, Solana once again demonstrated the vitality of its ecosystem, with many successful meme coin projects born on the network, benefiting the entire ecosystem.
Do not forget that the public chain actually has revenue, cash flow, and profits (from Gas), meaning that its business model is clear. According to data from DefiLlama, Solana’s revenue has seen tremendous growth this year, even far surpassing the previous bull market. Looking at this, apart from Ethereum and Tron (benefiting from USDT), there are hardly any competitors that can compete with it.
After reading about Solana, take a look at Polkadot, once hailed as a top-notch project. The foundation released its financial report this week, revealing a budget of $87 million for the first half of 2024. In the end, the ecosystem not only did not grow, but the remaining funds may only be able to sustain it for 2 years. Projects like Polkadot are common in the cryptocurrency industry, and protocols that actually make money are few and far between. When discussing value investments, it is important to return to the most basic “P = E × PE” valuation model.
P represents the market price of the stock.
E represents earnings per share, the company’s net profit divided by the total number of shares issued.
PE is the price-to-earnings ratio, which shows how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings per share.
While short-term token prices may be affected by market sentiment and speculative narratives, in the long run, value ultimately comes back to profitability.
Suspected government-related addresses transfer $241 million worth of Bitcoin to exchanges
In recent weeks, both the US and German governments have started transferring confiscated cryptocurrency assets to exchanges. According to data from the online intelligence platform Arkham Intelligence, a cryptocurrency wallet marked as controlled by the US government transferred about 3940 bitcoins (worth $241 million) to the Coinbase exchange on the 26th. These bitcoins were originally seized from a drug dealer named Banmeet Singh.
VanEck applies for Solana ETF in the US, stating that SOL is a commodity
Fund management company VanEck has applied for a Solana ETF tracking the price of SOL in the US. According to VanEck’s S-1 registration statement, the “VanEck Solana Trust” plans to list on the Cboe BZX Exchange, a securities exchange under the Chicago Options Exchange (CBOE), and will hold native Solana tokens SOL, “and will value its shares daily based on the reported MarketVectorTM Solana benchmark interest rate”.
US presidential debate does not mention cryptocurrency, related meme coins plunge significantly
The first round of the 2024 US presidential debate ended earlier on Friday (28th), with incumbent President Biden and former President Trump discussing issues such as the economy, abortion, immigration, and foreign policy, but not mentioning cryptocurrency. Meme coins related to this did not see a surge in hype during the debate, but instead experienced a significant decline.
Kraken founder donates 1 million ETH to Trump, criticizes the Biden administration for standing by and watching the cryptocurrency industry being oppressed
Jesse Powell, the founder of the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, announced today on X that he has donated $1 million to US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s campaign. Jesse Powell criticized the Biden administration for not taking action against the oppression of the cryptocurrency industry and expressed his support for Trump to ensure that the United States can continue to maintain its leading position in blockchain technology.
SEC sues Consensys, a blockchain software developer, for violating securities laws
According to legal documents, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has formally sued blockchain software developer Consensys for violating securities laws. The SEC has accused the company of operating an unregistered broker-dealer and issuing and selling securities through its wallet MetaMask. It also claims that the liquidity staking services of Lido and Rocket Pool are securities businesses.
Insiders: SEC requests issuer of Ethereum ETF to amend S-1 form and resubmit
According to a report by “The Block” quoting insiders, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected the S-1 forms submitted by the potential issuer of an Ethereum ETF. According to a source from one issuer, the rejected forms came with simple comments, and the issuer was asked to address these comments and resubmit them by July 8.
Spending 87 million ETH in half a year! Will the remaining funds of the Polkadot Foundation dry up within two years?
The Polkadot Foundation released its financial report for the first half of 2024 last weekend. The report shows that the foundation has spent $87 million (11 million DOT) in the first 6 months of 2024. According to official statements, at the current rate of spending $87 million in half a year, the foundation will incur a net loss of about $108 million per year (17 million DOT). If the DOTUSD exchange rate remains unchanged, the remaining funds of the Polkadot Foundation could be depleted within two years.
Circle approved to issue stablecoins USDC and EURC under the European MiCA regulatory framework
Stablecoin issuer Circle announced on Monday (1st) that it has been licensed and approved to issue stablecoins under the “Markets in Crypto Assets” (MiCA) regulatory framework. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said at a press conference in Paris that Circle is the world’s first stablecoin issuer to comply with the MiCA regulatory framework, and the relevant rules took effect on July 1. Circle will be able to issue the US dollar stablecoin USDC and the euro stablecoin EURC under this regulatory framework.
Pendle’s total locked asset value drops by 30 billion ETH
According to data from DefiLlama, the total locked asset value of the DeFi protocol Pendle has flowed out nearly $30 billion in the past, most of which are so-called liquidity re-collateralized tokens (LRT). It is reported that the massive outflow of funds from the Pendle protocol is mainly related to the expiration of some products.
Coinbase Bitcoin premium index drops to an unprecedented negative level
Blockchain data analysis company CryptoQuant’s data shows that the Coinbase premium index has dropped to an unprecedented negative level. Since such deep negatives have often occurred near local price lows, this may be a signal that Bitcoin is bottoming out.
AI project Bittensor suspends on-chain transactions for investigation of attack, TAO token drops by over 10%
The developers of the decentralized artificial intelligence project Bittensor temporarily stopped the operation of their blockchain network after discovering a suspected security vulnerability attack on user wallets. According to on-chain investigator ZachXBT, this attack may be related to a leaked private key.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from the official announcement of GT Radar. Each user may have slight differences in entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future performance!
