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Cryptocurrency asset management company VanEck, which released a report in June 2024, predicted that Ether would rise to $22,000 by 2030.


When asked about this by the community, Matthew Sigel, Director of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, emphasized that the $22,000 price prediction is for 2030 and assumes a 50:50 ratio between Ethereum and L2 in terms of Total Value Locked (TVL), as well as a 50:50 ratio of Miner Extractable Value (MEV).
VanEck’s model takes into account the expected growth of Ethereum’s total locked asset value, network revenue, and the amount of Ether consumed by the network, such as burnt Ether or Ether taken out of circulation due to transaction fees.
However, Matthew Sigel further pointed out that the initial model of the institution assumed a 90:10 distribution of transaction revenue between Ethereum and Layer 2 (L2), including the value extracted from L2 by Ethereum, block fees, validation fees, and other fees. But the current situation is that L2 has the advantage, with a ratio of 10:90 (data from the past four months), which is a significant change and indicates that L2 is extracting more value from Ethereum.


Under the condition of other factors remaining unchanged, if this distribution ratio remains at 10:90, the institution’s price target for Ether (ETH) will be reduced by two-thirds, from $22,000 to $7,334.

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