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Bitcoin Derivatives Market Shows No Bearish Bets
Bitcoin Price Yet to Decouple from Stocks
The “Bitcoin Futures Premium Rate” typically remains between 5% and 10% in a neutral market, and when the premium exceeds 10%, it indicates a bullish market sentiment. According to Cointelegraph’s report, despite Bitcoin retesting the support level of $67,000 on October 21, the annualized premium (basis rate) remains above 9%.
The Bitcoin options market further strengthens the view of a stable derivatives market. The 25% delta skew indicator shows that the trading price of selling options is lower than that of buying options under the same conditions.
Typically, a skew of -7% to +7% is considered neutral, and the current indicator is at the boundary between neutral and bullish markets.
Overall, derivatives traders have not shown panic over the recent price decline in Bitcoin. If traders expect further price drops, the skew should move towards zero or higher. Overall, the Bitcoin derivatives market continues to demonstrate resilience.
Yesterday’s decline does not seem to be limited to the Bitcoin market; based on the price chart alone, Bitcoin’s price movement appears similar to the intraday performance of the stock market.
Although Bitcoin is often seen as an asset unrelated to traditional markets and has shown complete decoupling from the S&P 500 index multiple times, in the past month, the 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has still exceeded 80%, indicating a close relationship between these two asset classes.
Unlike the negative or negligible correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 observed from mid-July to mid-September, recent data suggests that both markets have been driven by similar factors. This hypothesis is supported by the increased correlation between Bitcoin and gold, which surpassed 80% on October 3.
(This article is authorized for reprinting from GT Radar)
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